- Prior was -0.2
- New orders +19.3 vs +6.4 prior
- Prices paid +51.0 vs +36.6 prior
- Employment +9.8 vs +5.8 prior
Separately, the US was out with import/export price data:
- Import prices +0.8% vs +2.0% exp
- Export prices +1.6% vs +1.5% exp
Those numbers align with PPI data released earlier this week that were surprisingly benign.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the earliest regional manufacturing indicators released each month and is closely watched as a barometer of broader U.S. industrial activity. The survey polls approximately 200 manufacturing executives across New York State, who report changes in 11 indicators — including general business conditions, new orders, shipments, inventories, employment, and prices — relative to the prior month, as well as their expectations six months ahead. The main headline index, general business conditions, is a standalone question rather than a weighted average of the other components. Readings above zero signal expansion, while negative readings indicate contraction.
After slipping into negative territory in late 2025, the index turned positive in January 2026, jumping to 7.7 from a revised -3.7 in December as new orders and shipments both improved. February’s reading edged down slightly to 7.1, with activity continuing to expand modestly and employment rising.
The March reading, however, disappointed markets, falling to -0.2 — well below the consensus forecast of around 3 to 4 — marking the first negative print of the year. New orders showed modest growth at 6.4, but shipments contracted at -6.9 and delivery times lengthened significantly. Input price pressures eased notably, with the prices paid index declining sharply by 13 points to 36.6, though it remained elevated. Despite the soft headline number, manufacturers expressed strong optimism about the six-month outlook, and capital spending plans climbed to a multi-year high of 21.6.
