- On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, “we are not there yet”
- However, it is definitely under consideration
- We should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some time
- If Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy prices
- We estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil production to reach pre-war levels again
- The push for use of electric vehicles will increase faster than previously anticipated
It looks like Japan will have to act in an isolated manner to push for their next round of emergency oil reserves release. With prices looking much calmer in the past week or so, you can bet that the US and Trump won’t have as much appetite to force the issue this time around.
As for the other comments, Birol is pretty much just stating the obvious for the most part. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it doesn’t mean that supply issues will immediately get resolved. As mentioned before, it will be a slow trickle at best and it will take many more months for key energy facilities to run back at full capacity.
In other words, it will take a long time before things actually normalise and that is assuming the war comes to an end and the strait is open for business in a meaningful way.
And if not, the market optimism we’re seeing here could really run into big trouble down the road with there being no change to the status quo on the Strait of Hormuz especially.
Sure, more positive talks and a deal of sorts may look play well on the optics. But when the hard data hits, nothing will change for markets and the global economy until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. That’s the main thing still.
