Trump is out with an interview with CBS reiterating that the US will get Iran’s uranium.
“Our people, together with the Iranians are going to work together to go
get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States,” he said.
However, Iran’s Parliamentary National Security Committee Spokesman tells Al Jazeera they will not allow the removal of uranium from Iran, and the American statements on social media differ from reality.
Maybe this ultimately still ends with the uranium going to a third country but everything is being spun on all sides right now. Or maybe it’s all going to fall apart. Oil ticked a bit higher into settlement but WTI still finished down $10.84 to $83.85 or 11.45% in one of the all-time biggest one-day declines.
WTI front month
With Trump you always get the feeling there will be one more surprise and that he’s saving it for the weekend but there is certainly a lot of good news on the war today.
Presuming this gets sorted out, I expect more of a focus to emerge on supply chains, inventory restocking and restart times. There was a lot of damage in this war and it’s not easy to restart oil production in many fields. There are big questions about how aggressively ships will want to pass through Hormuz, though there is a report about 20 tankers on the way through now.
Generally, I think the market has this right but lots of good news is priced in and $83 oil isn’t exactly leaving much room for quick downside. I do see the huge head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart and that does point down to $60 but I just can’t see it given that 400 million barrels have been unproduced and there’s no way to make those re-appear.
In any case, we will have to iron out these talks and the market will remain jittery but the latest indications are that there will be talks on Monday in Pakistan.
