The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 tumbled to 1.2% from 2.5% last.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2026 is 1.2 percent on July 1, down from 2.5 percent on June 25. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.5 percent to 6.5 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.59 percentage points to -1.62 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, July 7. Please see the “Release Dates” tab for a list of upcoming releases.
Earlier today, NEC Director Hassett said he expects roughly 4% growth in H2. He is positive on a 2H rebound given the war ending.
