The report says that recent inflation developments has further taken pressure off the ECB for a move in July, although there is still a case to be made if the June numbers are “nasty”.
According to the sources cited, all with direct knowledge of the situation, policymakers were surprised by how quickly oil prices have eased in the past two weeks especially. As such, they believe that the normalisation of the energy market is already well underway.
Given the circumstances, a rate hike in September remains the more likely scenario for now but the sources note that the June inflation data tomorrow will still carry significant weight.
One of the sources said that if the headline figure does fall back from 3.2% “as markets now anticipate it would”, then waiting until September will be the better option. However, a negative upside surprise would strengthen the case for a follow up move in July.
Well, we will already get a bit of a taste of what to expect from today with Germany, France, and Italy all reporting inflation numbers for June later. That will set the tone on what to expect for the overall Eurozone estimate tomorrow.
Looking to market pricing, traders are pricing in ~34% odds of a move in July with that nearly doubling by the time we get to September. Another full 25 bps rate hike is fully priced in by the time we get to October, with ~30 bps of rate hikes priced in by year-end.
