This is the headline we’ve been looking for for seven weeks.
On twitter, Araghchi writes:
In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.
It’s over.
Oil is falling rapidly on this as it looks like all the elements are falling into place for a peace deal. Negotiators are set to meet on Sunday in Pakistan but that’s starting to look more like a formality unless there is a big snag.
This follows a report saying that the US is considering a $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal. In terms of nuclear, it says:
Under
a compromise proposal now under discussion, some of the highly enriched
uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the U.S.,
and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international
monitoring.
The report also says the deal includes a voluntary moratorium on nuclear enrichment, what Trump called a very strong statement.
The same report also says that there has been “steady progress” in negotiations though “significant gaps remain”.
I will be keeping a very close eye on Trump’s Truth Social in the next hour or so.
Oil is getting absolutely wrecked on this headline as the speculative longs throw in the towel. WTI is down $9.65 to $85.04. I wouldn’t have thought that many longs were still hanging around but the surprise here might be the ‘completely open’ portion as it looks like it will be full-bore on the oil shipments. Obviously Iran thinks a deal is basically a done deal at this point, and has agreed to something they think the US supports. Because this is essentially dropping all their leverage.
There are even more signs of a broader peace in the Middle East as well with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa saying that Damascus is currently discussing a new security agreement with Israel that guarantees its withdrawal to the 1974 borders.
