- Prior was -0.6%
- GDP +0.0% q/q vs -0.2% prior
- March GDP -0.1% vs +0.0% expected
- Prior +0.2%
- Full report here
Real gross domestic product was unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, after declining 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Higher imports of goods, particularly gold, were offset by accumulations of business inventories. Decreased business and government capital investment was counterbalanced by higher household spending, as final domestic demand edged 0.1% lower.
On a per capita basis, real GDP increased 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026, as the population declined for a second consecutive quarter and GDP remained unchanged.
The Canadian dollar weakened on the release as the Canadian economic data continues to surprise to the downside. There’s very little reason for the BoC to deliver rate hikes. Despite this, the market is pricing a 77% chance of a rate hike in December. The dovish repricing on the BoC side and hawkish repricing on the Fed side could keep USD/CAD supported.
