Inflation in Germany ran up in April largely on the back of higher energy prices. That saw headline prices move up to near 3% and is once again expected to keep thereabouts in May. After the initial flurry from the earlier months, we won’t see much of a significant spike from April to May. And that will also likely be reflected in the monthly numbers (expected estimate of just +0.1%).
Meanwhile, headline annual inflation is expected to hold at 2.9% – similar to April. If it does cross over to the 3% mark, that will be the highest reading since December 2023.
The only good news is that core annual inflation is still keeping in check. Core prices eased to 2.3% in April, down from 2.5% in March. But the longer the conflict drags on and as we get closer to the summer months, expect higher energy prices to also spill over to other areas more prominently. And if they become more embedded, the risk is that core prices will eventually show a marked jump when we get towards Q3 or later in the year.
Here’s the agenda for today:
- 0800 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia
- 0800 GMT – Hesse
- 0800 GMT – Bavaria
- 0800 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg
- 0800 GMT – Saxony
- 1200 GMT – Germany national preliminary figures
Do note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.
